Myanmar’s conflict cannot be resolved simply by restoring the pre-2021 political order or pursuing outright military victory. Its deeper roots lie in the unresolved struggle between a powerful central state and ethnic communities seeking meaningful control over their own security, administration, resources and political affairs. This Insight Paper proposes a realistic ten-point peace settlement centred on decentralised federal government, strong local leadership, functioning institutions and law and order. It examines the concessions required from the Tatmadaw and resistance forces, the roles of China and ASEAN as external guarantors, and a phased transition in which Myanmar remains a unified state while substantial authority is constitutionally transferred to its states and regions. The objective is not to impose an external model of government, but to create a stable political order capable of ending decades of armed conflict and allowing the country to move forward.
