The planned withdrawal of remaining U.S. forces from Iraq by 30 September 2026 coincides with Baghdad’s deadline to bring non-state armed groups under government control. This assessment examines the implications of the withdrawal, the challenge of disarming or integrating Iran-backed PMF factions, recent militia threats against Saudi Arabia, reported IRGC-linked covert networks, and the areas of Iraq most exposed to disruption. It also assesses the likely post-withdrawal security environment and provides practical guidance for foreign companies operating in Iraq.
Middle EastIraqSaudi ArabiaUnited States
This publication is an analytical assessment based on information available at the publication date. Judgements may change as new information becomes available.