Bangladesh: Security Implications of Sheikh Hasina’s Planned Return

Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has stated that she intends to return to Bangladesh in December 2026 and surrender to the authorities. This assessment examines the credibility of the proposed return, the potential for political unrest and security-force activity, and the likely operational implications for businesses and field operations. The principal risk is assessed as short-duration disruption around any confirmed return date, including protests, road blockages and movement restrictions, rather than deliberate targeting of commercial operations.